Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that polarised the country and triggered disorder, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and electorate drifted into Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two leading commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially tense and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can build support rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the political architecture of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The team have examined the political, economic and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the matter with a roadshow of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everyone, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily split population where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the those successful are uncertain exactly what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say this point is looming, and a group named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, making it uncertain if and when there could be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has hidden the shortage of serious debate, said the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A lot has taken place in academia but hardly any elected officials or campaigners seek to involve themselves even with the fundamentals. As an example, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, neither author endorses unity or the current situation. Both writes two essays that aim for neutrality in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the argument against, assembling financial and societal data, previous instances and constitutional models.
Arguments encompass national emblems, levies, health services, retirement funds, public liabilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to educate and provoke conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there is still lacking a discussion," said the writer. "Debate implies an recognition of the concept that there could be good arguments on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they support unification but reject greater financial contributions or implementing a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland must work out what the plan from pro-unification movements is aside from just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist considers a referendum in his era is probable and that it could happen suddenly. "You could have just a mad or a ill-advised or a incompetent secretary of state who states: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, justified arguments, he stated. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and somebody will eventually lose but each side has possesses valuable insights to gain from the other's positions."
Request for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster must participate in the discussion, said the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish issue."
